[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].
Identifieur interne : 000057 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000056; suivant : 000058[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].
Auteurs : Y. Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; X Y You [République populaire de Chine] ; Y J Wang ; L P Peng [République populaire de Chine] ; Z C Du [République populaire de Chine] ; S. Gilmour ; D. Yoneoka ; J. Gu [République populaire de Chine] ; C. Hao [République populaire de Chine] ; Y T Hao [République populaire de Chine] ; J H Li [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi [ 0254-6450 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Objective: The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Method: The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R(0). Result: Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R(0) was 3.49 (95% CI: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R(0) was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusion: In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R(0) using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.
DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200210-00086
PubMed: 32125128
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: 000327
- to stream PubMed, to step Curation: 000327
- to stream PubMed, to step Checkpoint: 000051
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 000A85
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 000A85
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 000A85
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000059
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000057
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].</title><author><name sortKey="Wang, Y" sort="Wang, Y" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Y" last="Wang">Y. Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="You, X Y" sort="You, X Y" uniqKey="You X" first="X Y" last="You">X Y You</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Y J" sort="Wang, Y J" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Y J" last="Wang">Y J Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Japan 104-0045</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Peng, L P" sort="Peng, L P" uniqKey="Peng L" first="L P" last="Peng">L P Peng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Z C" sort="Du, Z C" uniqKey="Du Z" first="Z C" last="Du">Z C Du</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gilmour, S" sort="Gilmour, S" uniqKey="Gilmour S" first="S" last="Gilmour">S. Gilmour</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Japan 104-0045</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoneoka, D" sort="Yoneoka, D" uniqKey="Yoneoka D" first="D" last="Yoneoka">D. Yoneoka</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Japan 104-0045</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gu, J" sort="Gu, J" uniqKey="Gu J" first="J" last="Gu">J. Gu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hao, C" sort="Hao, C" uniqKey="Hao C" first="C" last="Hao">C. Hao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hao, Y T" sort="Hao, Y T" uniqKey="Hao Y" first="Y T" last="Hao">Y T Hao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, J H" sort="Li, J H" uniqKey="Li J" first="J H" last="Li">J H Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32125128</idno><idno type="pmid">32125128</idno><idno type="doi">10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200210-00086</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000327</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000327</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000327</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000327</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000051</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000051</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000A85</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000A85</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000A85</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0254-6450:2020:Wang Y:estimating:the:basic</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000059</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000057</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000057</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].</title><author><name sortKey="Wang, Y" sort="Wang, Y" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Y" last="Wang">Y. Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="You, X Y" sort="You, X Y" uniqKey="You X" first="X Y" last="You">X Y You</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Y J" sort="Wang, Y J" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Y J" last="Wang">Y J Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Japan 104-0045</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Peng, L P" sort="Peng, L P" uniqKey="Peng L" first="L P" last="Peng">L P Peng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Z C" sort="Du, Z C" uniqKey="Du Z" first="Z C" last="Du">Z C Du</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gilmour, S" sort="Gilmour, S" uniqKey="Gilmour S" first="S" last="Gilmour">S. Gilmour</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Japan 104-0045</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoneoka, D" sort="Yoneoka, D" uniqKey="Yoneoka D" first="D" last="Yoneoka">D. Yoneoka</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Japan 104-0045</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gu, J" sort="Gu, J" uniqKey="Gu J" first="J" last="Gu">J. Gu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hao, C" sort="Hao, C" uniqKey="Hao C" first="C" last="Hao">C. Hao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hao, Y T" sort="Hao, Y T" uniqKey="Hao Y" first="Y T" last="Hao">Y T Hao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, J H" sort="Li, J H" uniqKey="Li J" first="J H" last="Li">J H Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi</title><idno type="ISSN">0254-6450</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><b>Objective:</b> The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (<i>R(0)</i>) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. <b>Method:</b> The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the <i>R(0)</i>. <b>Result:</b> Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated <i>R(0)</i> was 3.49 (95% <i>CI</i>: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The <i>R(0)</i> was estimated to be 2.95 (95%<i>CI</i>: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. <b>Conclusion:</b> In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate <i>R(0)</i> using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country><region><li>Guangdong</li></region><settlement><li>Jiangmen</li></settlement></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Gilmour, S" sort="Gilmour, S" uniqKey="Gilmour S" first="S" last="Gilmour">S. Gilmour</name><name sortKey="Wang, Y J" sort="Wang, Y J" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Y J" last="Wang">Y J Wang</name><name sortKey="Yoneoka, D" sort="Yoneoka, D" uniqKey="Yoneoka D" first="D" last="Yoneoka">D. Yoneoka</name></noCountry><country name="République populaire de Chine"><region name="Guangdong"><name sortKey="Wang, Y" sort="Wang, Y" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Y" last="Wang">Y. Wang</name></region><name sortKey="Du, Z C" sort="Du, Z C" uniqKey="Du Z" first="Z C" last="Du">Z C Du</name><name sortKey="Gu, J" sort="Gu, J" uniqKey="Gu J" first="J" last="Gu">J. Gu</name><name sortKey="Hao, C" sort="Hao, C" uniqKey="Hao C" first="C" last="Hao">C. Hao</name><name sortKey="Hao, Y T" sort="Hao, Y T" uniqKey="Hao Y" first="Y T" last="Hao">Y T Hao</name><name sortKey="Li, J H" sort="Li, J H" uniqKey="Li J" first="J H" last="Li">J H Li</name><name sortKey="Peng, L P" sort="Peng, L P" uniqKey="Peng L" first="L P" last="Peng">L P Peng</name><name sortKey="You, X Y" sort="You, X Y" uniqKey="You X" first="X Y" last="You">X Y You</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/CovidV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000057 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000057 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Sante
|area= CovidV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:32125128
|texte= [Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32125128" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |